You may not be aware, but bookmakers use the Poisson distribution to calculate pre-match odds for football events. There are various algorithms for generating odds lines, all based on the Poisson distribution, and bookmakers almost certainly use more sophisticated versions with a range of adjustment coefficients. But, the base is using the classic Poisson distribution.
On this page you can use the classic Poisson calculator developed by our team of sports analysts. Our calculator has its own advantages, which are the use of expected goals (xG) as input data. There is no point in complicating the calculator itself with adjustments, it is much better to concentrate on making more accurate xG predictions than the bookmakers. For this purpose, our website provides all the necessary statistics.
What is the practical value of this calculator for a bettor? Based on the probabilities, the calculator immediately shows what the fair odds should be without the bookmaker’s margin. This allows you to compare with the bookmaker’s line and see where there is value. If the bookmaker offers odds higher than those calculated by you, this is a potential value bet – such bets are profitable in the long run.
