1. Expected goals (xG) is the basis
Our predictions are based on many metrics, but the xG score carries the most weight.
2. Advanced match modeling
We use a sophisticated, unique mathematical model based on 11 metrics and weighting factors. For example, we take into account recent form, offensive and defensive efficiency, goal count, and situational factors such as home/away status, schedule density, and other secret metrics.
3. Player-level insights
On our website you can find advanced statistics for each player. This allows us to adjust team strength and xG predictions based on actual line-up data.
4. Probability & market analysis
Using the Poisson statistical distribution, we calculate the probability of each event – win, draw, loss, double chance, goal total, etc. We then compare these probabilities to bookmaker odds to determine the potential value. The result is the prediction you see on the website.
5. Continuous learning & improvement
The xGstatspredict team is constantly improving the mathematical algorithm. We test our forecasts, incorporate new data sources and metrics to improve predictions accuracy and ROI.
